See what a cohort could return.
ROAS Forecast models customer value from early behaviour. Follow the prediction as a cohort develops, then check it against the outcome.
Example cohort A: $600,000 acquisition spend. The day-30 forecast predicted $1.24M net gaming revenue by day 180, a 2.07× ROAS, with payback around day 54. The observed outcome was $1.20M. Synthetic data.
Three things to read in every forecast.
What has been observed, what is predicted and how sure the prediction is. The chart keeps them apart so nobody mistakes one for another.
Observation window
Revenue the cohort has already produced. Solid line, measured data.
Forecast horizon
Predicted net gaming revenue to day 180, drawn from early behaviour. Dashed line.
Illustrative range
Where the outcome could land. It narrows as more of the cohort is observed.
A snapshot at every checkpoint.
Atlas takes a forecast snapshot at each agreed checkpoint. Every snapshot stays on record with the data it used, so the team can see how the view changed.
Cohort A, $600,000 spend and a 180-day horizon stay the same throughout this page.
| Snapshot | Observed then | Forecast NGR, day 180 | ROAS | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 15 | $165k | $1.27M±$220k | 2.12× | |
| Day 30 | $320k | $1.24M±$160k | 2.07× | |
| Day 60 | $580k | $1.22M±$110k | 2.03× | |
| Day 90 | $825k | $1.21M±$70k | 2.02× |
View opens that snapshot in the example above.
Then the outcome arrives.
Compare each snapshot with what the cohort actually returned. Review model accuracy separately from campaign performance.
The day 30 snapshot was $40,000 above the actual, inside its forecast range.
Synthetic figures explain the review. They do not measure Atlas performance. Outcomes vary by team and setup.
One view of customer value.
Behaviour modelling sits under the forecast. The same value foundation can also support other customer decisions.
- Churn risk
- Reactivation
- VIP potential
- CRM segments
Put the forecast to work.
Use predicted value in the decisions your team already makes. Agree the question, horizon and first test.